10.4225/03/59374830eeb6e
Booth, Heather
Heather
Booth
Hyndman, Rob J.
Rob J.
Hyndman
Tickle, Leonie
Leonie
Tickle
de Jong, Piet
Piet
de Jong
Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions
Monash University
2017
Functional data
Nonparametric smoothing
1959.1/42199
State space
Lee-Carter method
Principal components
2006
Mortality forecasting
monash:7418
2017-06-07 00:26:23
Journal contribution
https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/journal_contribution/Lee-Carter_mortality_forecasting_a_multi-country_comparison_of_variants_and_extensions/5084623
We compare the short- to medium- term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These methods are compared by applying them to sex-specific populations of 10 developed countries using data for 1986–2000 for evaluation. All variants and extensions are more accurate than the original Lee-Carter method for forecasting log death rates, by up to 61%. However, accuracy in log death rates does not necessarily translate into accuracy in life expectancy. There are no significant differences among the five methods in forecast accuracy for life expectancy.