%0 Journal Article %A Booth, Heather %A Hyndman, Rob J. %A Tickle, Leonie %A de Jong, Piet %D 2017 %T Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions %U https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/journal_contribution/Lee-Carter_mortality_forecasting_a_multi-country_comparison_of_variants_and_extensions/5084623 %R 10.4225/03/59374830eeb6e %2 https://bridges.monash.edu/ndownloader/files/8616844 %K Functional data %K Nonparametric smoothing %K 1959.1/42199 %K State space %K Lee-Carter method %K Principal components %K 2006 %K Mortality forecasting %K monash:7418 %X We compare the short- to medium- term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These methods are compared by applying them to sex-specific populations of 10 developed countries using data for 1986–2000 for evaluation. All variants and extensions are more accurate than the original Lee-Carter method for forecasting log death rates, by up to 61%. However, accuracy in log death rates does not necessarily translate into accuracy in life expectancy. There are no significant differences among the five methods in forecast accuracy for life expectancy. %I Monash University