Changes to rainfall regimes in north-western Australia in observations and climate models

Rainfall in north-western Australia has been increasing since the 1950s. This thesis examines how changes to the frequency and intensity of weather systems contribute to the increase in rainfall over the region, in the observed climate and in climate models under a high-emissions scenario. Increases in the frequency of tropical cyclones and monsoon lows drive the observed trend. Climate models usually reproduce rainfall patterns correctly but underestimate the frequency of the occurrence of heavy rainfall events. Models do not agree on future rainfall changes, but we find that changes depend mostly on changes to frequency of heavy rainfall events.