The 40 per cent target qualified target: how feasible?

The Australian Government has made a commitment to increase the level of higher education training in Australia. Its target by 2025 is that 40 per cent of all 25- to 34-year-old Australians will possess degree qualifications or above (from 29 per cent in 2006). This article examines whether this target is feasible. Various assumptions about domestic enrolment and immigration are modelled which take account of ageing-into and ageing-out of the 25- to 34-year-old cohort. The conclusion is that the 40 per cent target is very unlikely to be achieved because it would require an increase of at least 50 per cent in domestic undergraduate completions by 2020 and a sharp rise in immigration. Copyright. Monash University and the author/s